Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
